I built this little app that projects the Padres’ final record every day based on how they’re playing, and after tonight it spit out 79 and 83. That’s about right. That’s exactly the team we’re watching. They’re 2-5 since the All-Star break and four games back of the last wild card spot, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 54-49 ahead of them. And the worst part is this has nothing to do with other teams. They are doing this to themselves.

Xander Bogarts is hitting .222 with an 81 OPS+ this year, way down from his .284 career mark, and I don’t think you can count on him as a superstar piece of this team going forward. And I’m honestly surprised there’s been almost no trade activity to fix the pitching, even after losing Joe Musgrove before the year and Nick Pivetta a few starts in. If anyone gets moved it’ll probably be Adrian Morejon, since he’s a rental heading into free agency. The reporting says Mason Miller’s likely staying put, and I’m glad for that.

I don’t have a lot of good things to say about the 2026 Padres right now, and I’m sorry to be that way, but that’s the way it is. Nine games coming up against the Marlins, Rockies, and Giants are all winnable, and I want to see them put a streak together instead of shooting themselves in the foot every single night.